Politics in Young Digital Cities: The Intersection of Youth Bulge, Urbanization, and Social Media in Shaping Youth Political Attitudes and Participation in Africa

Extended Abstract

Africa currently embodies a unique convergence of three significant episodes: demographic shifts marked by the youth bulge, spatial transformations driven by rapid urbanization, and the rapid adoption of digital technologies, particularly social media. These phenomena represent megatrends or long-term structural changes that affect all aspects of society, extend globally, and are intricately interconnected, often reinforcing one another’s impact^1,2. While previous research has examined the individual effects of demographic shifts ^3,4, digitalization (social media)^5,6, and urbanization^7,8, on young people’s political attitudes and participation, there is a notable gap in understanding the interplay of these factors in the African context. To date, no empirical study examines how the intersection of these megatrends influences the political behaviours and attitudes of African youth amidst the continent’s unique sociopolitical and demographic transitions. This research seeks to fill that gap by examining the interaction between Africa’s youth bulge, urbanization, and social media use on the political attitudes and behaviours of young Africans. It aims to provide an understanding of how these overlapping phenomena shape the political engagement of young Africans growing up in this complex environment.

Addressing this research gap is crucial for both theoretical advancement and policy innovation. This research is premised on the assumption that African youth, being a highly diverse group, exhibit political behaviours shaped by a combination of sociodemographic factors, the urban-rural divide, and access to digital platforms that enable civic and political engagements. Understanding these interdependencies is essential for mitigating youth discontent and fostering meaningful political participation in democracies and hybrid regimes. Theoretically, this study is among the first to integrate the three critical megatrends to provide a comprehensive explanation of variations in political attitudes and participation. Our approach, therefore, extends modernization theory by incorporating structural factors (youth bulge) in complemental interaction with individual-level factors (urban residency and social media usage) as explanations for political attitudes and behaviours. Furthermore, the study broadens the scope of political participation theories. Traditional frameworks often treat institutionalized participation (e.g. voting) and non-institutionalized actions (e.g., protests) as separate domains. The present study’s focus on how social media usage by large urbanized youth populations influences shifts in formal democratic engagements and alternative political expressions offers novel insights into the evolving repertoires of political behaviour among young people.

From a policy perspective, the findings of the study can inform strategies to engage youth more effectively in political processes. African Governments and development partners alike can leverage insights into the intersections of demography, urbanization, and digitalization to design targeted initiatives addressing the distinct challenges and opportunities faced by African youth. This could include policies to enhance the inclusivity of democratic institutions and counteract barriers to formal participation while recognizing the potential of social media as a mobilizing force for civic engagement. Additionally, given the dual role of social media as both a mobilization tool and a source of disinformation, the research can inform strategies to enhance its democratic potential while minimizing its misuse. The study is accordingly informed by the following research question.

Research Question

”Does youth bulge, urbanization, and social media usage jointly influence youth political attitudes and participation among African youth?”

The study employs a large-N design and analyzes data from 42 African countries spanning Afrobarometer surveys conducted between 2004 and 2023, complemented by contextual data from international sources to answer the research question. Utilizing multilevel logistic regression, the research assesses the interaction effects of these megatrends on youth support for democracy, voting, and participation in protests. He study aims to produce an initial Working Paper, which will provide a foundation for a journal article.

Keywords: youth bulge, urbanization, social media, political attitudes, political participation, youth.

References

1. John Naisbitt, Megatrends : Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives (New York, N.Y. : Warner Books, 1984), http://archive.org/details/megatrends00john.
2. Zukunft Institut, ‘The Megatrends’, 2022, https://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/zukunftsthemen/dossier/megatrends-en.
3. Godfred Bonnah Nkansah, ‘Young People’s Demography in Democracy: The Effect of Youth Cohort Size on Youth Political Attitudes and Behaviours in Democratic Societies (1995-2020)’ (phd, Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem, 2023), https://phd.lib.uni-corvinus.hu/1323/.
4. Kira Renée Kurz et al., ‘„Political Demography“ – blinder Fleck der deutschen Politikwissenschaft? Eine einführende Literaturübersicht’, Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 14 August 2024, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-024-00557-8.
5. Sebastián Valenzuela et al., ‘The Paradox of Participation Versus Misinformation: Social Media, Political Engagement, and the Spread of Misinformation’, Digital Journalism 7, no. 6 (3 July 2019): 802–23, https://doi.org/10.1080/21670811.2019.1623701.
6. Martin N. Ndlela and Winston Mano, eds., Social Media and Elections in Africa, Volume 2: Challenges and Opportunities (Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020), https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-32682-1.
7. Edward L. Glaeser and Bryce Millett Steinberg, ‘Transforming Cities: Does Urbanization Promote Democratic Change?’, Regional Studies 51, no. 1 (2 January 2017): 58–68, https://doi.org/10.1080/00343404.2016.1262020.
8. Lisa Mueller, ‘Popular Protest and Accountability.’, in Handbook of Democratization in Africa, ed. G. Lynch and P. VonDoepp (Routledge, 2019), 392–403.