Theory of Change

Assumptions:
Poverty in Africa is multi-dimensional and interconnected with various social, economic, environmental, and political factors. Eradicating poverty in Africa, in line with SDG 1’s ambition to end poverty in all forms everywhere, requires addressing these interconnected factors through evidence-based advocacy and policy change.

At DAI-Africa, we recognize Africa’s demographic challenge/potential and position it as the starting point of our advocacy for an Africa without poverty. Our holistic evidence-based approach to addressing the multifaceted issues hindering development across the continent, therefore, begins with a social development focus. We believe that the continent’s population, especially the youth, is the core instrument and reason for development and must accordingly occupy the central place in development thinking. Interconnected with social development are technological advancement, economic development, environmental sustainability, and political empowerment. This forms the cornerstone of our theory of change, which in essence, represents our assumed pathway to sustainably eradicating poverty in Africa, with Africa’s youth as the protagonists of such a transformation.

Context:
A significant young population characterizes Africa's demographic structure. The region’s population is estimated at nearly 1.5 billion in 2024, and 1.7 billion by 2030, making it the fastest-growing continent in the world. By 2025, Africa’s population will have doubled since the year 2000, when there were 819 million inhabitants on the continent. A disproportionate number of Africa’s population, however, are young people under 30 years. They currently constitute 70% of the continent’s population. This age structure represents both a potential demographic dividend and a potential threat.

Experts argue that adequate investments into such a young population through access to quality education, healthcare, opportunities in the labour market, and active involvement in political and civil decision-making among others, hold the potential of empowering them to realize their full potential. Such a scenario undoubtedly presents the benefit of accelerating Africa’s socioeconomic transformation. Failure to make the above investments, however, presents potential challenges to the continent’s political, cultural, social, and economic stability. The continent’s youth bulge [a disproportionately large number of young people in the population] can, for instance, be a threat to political stability; a virtue upon which all other pillars of development rest.

Evidence suggests that young people growing as part of a youth bulge are typically the protagonists of acts of political and civil instability in nations with such demographic profiles. The mechanisms by which youth bulge increases the risk of political violence and armed conflicts include socioeconomic deprivation. The implication of the foregoing is that Africa’s youth bulge represents an existential threat to security if developmental priorities do not reflect their biographical concerns.

Africa’s disproportionate youth population makes the interest of young people a predominant focus of the advocacy initiatives of DAI-Africa. We are convinced that any sustainable effort at eradicating poverty at scale across the continent must, of necessity, prioritize the most salient demographic group by size. Africa’s young people are, in this regard, the cohort that can either perpetuate the vicious cycle of poverty or amplify the positive effects of policy interventions at scale, and into the future. Our theory of change, therefore, at its core, promotes an embedded focus on young people who are the majority and the future of Africa. This is evident in our thematic foci called STEEP.

Social Development - Reproductive Health and Education:
Africa’s demographic situation requires ambitious investment in comprehensive reproductive health and quality education for its burgeoning youth population. By ensuring access to quality education and reproductive health services, we empower individuals, particularly women and girls, to break the cycle of poverty. Educated and healthy populations contribute to increased productivity, reduced mortality rates, and improved overall well-being. Even so, family planning, when positioned as a social development goal, not a gendered medical service, alongside quality education, can be a major strategy for improving the quality of human capital.

At DAI-Africa, we are convinced that the first question of development is a population question. Since the people are the instruments and reason for development, care must be taken to ensure that the numbers a country has at any point in time are by choice, not chance. Too few or too many are extremes nations must avoid. The first consideration in development thinking must, therefore, be the people; how many we can plan for. It is only after we have answered this question that we can plan for quality healthcare, education, jobs, infrastructure, security, etc, for them. In practice, notwithstanding, this first and most important question of development has become one of the least considered in our development discourse at all levels.

Along with quality education, DAI-Africa by its evidence-based advocacy uncovers both the challenges and opportunities family planning and quality education present for Africa, and collaborates with partners, including governments, development partners, communities, and individuals to promote sustainable interventions in these two thematic areas.
Technological Advancement - Artificial Intelligence for Development:
Embracing technological innovation, particularly Artificial Intelligence (AI), accelerates development across sectors. AI can enhance efficiency in healthcare, education, agriculture, and governance, fostering sustainable growth. By advocating for AI integration and building the necessary capacities, we unlock new opportunities for Africa’s inclusive development, narrowing the technological divide. Our proposed policy interventions, therefore, incorporate the leveraging of technology, particularly AI for accelerated sustainable development. This includes calls for long-term investments into the creation and learning of such technologies in Africa, as against the current model of importation from advanced societies.
Economic Development - Reduction of Youth Unemployment:
The burgeoning youth population presents both an asset and a challenge. Prioritizing economic development, especially the reduction of youth unemployment, is essential. Through evidence-based advocacy, we promote policies that stimulate entrepreneurship, skills development, and job creation, ensuring that the youth become active contributors to economic growth rather than a potential source of instability. We promote the leveraging of technological innovations in accelerating the creation of opportunities for youth employment across different sectors of the economy.
Environment - Sustainable Solutions for Climate Change:
Addressing environmental challenges is imperative for long-term development. Advocating for sustainable solutions to climate change ensures resilience against environmental shocks and fosters sustainable resource management. This is crucial for safeguarding livelihoods, particularly in agriculture and related agribusiness, which remain a primary source of income for many Africans, including the youth. Our approach to climate advocacy embraces the efforts and insights of young people. They are likely to experience the adverse effects of climate change for a much longer time but are also fortunately future decision-makers on climate issues.
Politics - Promotion of Democracy:
Promoting democracy is fundamental to fostering stable governance and citizen participation. Advocating for democratic reforms, transparent governance, and the rule of law can strengthen institutions, promote social cohesion, and create an enabling environment for poverty eradication efforts. Democratic governance ensures that policies align with the needs of the people, reducing corruption and enhancing public trust. These values underpin our evidence-based advocacy for democracy and democratic governance across Africa.

Why Advocacy Matters: Africa's quest to eradicate poverty necessitates deliberate and coordinated efforts. Advocacy serves as the linchpin in this process by:

Raising Awareness: Advocacy shines a light on critical issues, fostering a collective understanding of challenges and opportunities.
Driving Policy Change: Evidence-based advocacy informs policy decisions, influencing governments and institutions to adopt strategies aligned with the SDGs.
Mobilizing Resources: Advocacy attracts domestic and international support, mobilizing resources for targeted interventions in education, healthcare, technology, and environmental sustainability.
Empowering Communities: Advocacy empowers communities to actively engage in the development process, fostering ownership and sustainability of initiatives. Too often, communities living below the poverty line, which require the greatest support, are the least engaged in advocacy. Any sustainable poverty reduction strategy, however, needs the active engagement of those most affected by the predicament.

Conclusion:

Accelerating Africa's development and eradicating poverty in line with SDG 1’s resolve to end poverty in all forms everywhere, requires a holistic approach that addresses the interconnected challenges facing the continent.
Evidence-based advocacy plays a central role in driving policy change and mobilizing resources to prioritize investments in key areas such as social development, technological advancement, economic empowerment, environmental sustainability, and democratic governance.
By prioritizing these interconnected areas and leveraging advocacy as a strategic tool for change, Africa can unlock its full potential and achieve a future of shared prosperity and dignity for all its people