Understanding the Democratic by the Demographic: Youth bulge and youth political behavior in Africa

DAI-Africa undertakes research projects that seek to understand the nexus between youth demographics and youth politics in Africa. The extended abstract of our current research project is seen below:

Youth Bulge

Extended Abstract

Although many characteristics define Africa’s population, the continent’s youth bulge (a disproportionately large share of young people aged between 15-29 years in the adult population 15 years+) is the most defining characteristic of the continent’s demographic landscape. With over 70% of the continent’s population under 30 years, Africa is the youngest continent now and many years into the future. The median age (i.e., the age at which half of the population is younger) of the continent in 2023 stood at 19.0 years, with that of Sub-Saharan Africa at 18.08 years. In countries such as the Central African Republic (14.32 years), Niger (15.25 years), Chad (15.40 years), Somalia (15.45 years), Mali (15.47 years), Democratic Republic of Congo (15.77 years) and Burundi (15.90 years), the median age is much lower than the continental average (United Nations, 2024).

While the phenomenon of youth bulge has received significant attention in both research and policy discussions, its consideration as a potential explanatory factor for individual political attitudes and participation among young people is yet to receive serious attention in the conversation on the nexus between demography and politics. The primary focus of empirical research and concomitant policy discussions have mainly been on the macro-level security implications of youth bulge (Cincotta, 2017; Goldstone, 2002; Goldstone et al., 2012; Korotayev et al., 2022; Sawyer et al., 2022), and its threat to the consolidation of liberal democracy (Cincotta, 2023; Cincotta & Doces, 2011; Weber, 2013). Other studies have also focused on the structural social and economic implications of a youth bulge (Bricker & Foley, 2013; Campante & Chor, 2012; Korenman & Neumark, 2000; Moffat & Roth, 2016).

Surprisingly little, however, is currently known about the political implications of youth bulge on the individual members of the cohort, particularly regarding their political attitudes and participation behaviors. This scarcity of studies on the ramifications of youth bulge on individual youth political attitudes and participation, and the general lack of inclusion of demographic factors in analyses of political attitudes and participation, despite their significant influence, represent a glaring gap in our collective knowledge as political scientists and policymakers.

Africa’s unique position as the youngest continent makes it a fascinating case for a longitudinal study on the effect of its youth bulge on political attitudes and participation of the youth constituting the bulge, and the socioeconomic mechanisms that moderate these relationships. Such a study, while improving our understanding of the theoretical and empirical implications of the relationship, can also provide important insights into the political future of the African continent and inform policy measures that can address young people’s perceived negative disposition towards politics.

This study examines whether the youth bulge ratio, or the proportion of youth in the adult population, influences the individual political attitudes, and participation behaviors of the young people forming the bulge in both institutionalized and non-institutionalized politics. It also examines the role of youth unemployment as a potential moderating factor in the relationships. The study employs random-intercept multilevel binary logistic Models and interaction plots on individual-level youth data from the Afrobarometer survey rounds 2-8, and country-level data from the World Bank, the United Nations Population Bureau, and the V-DEM liberal democracy index, to test four hypotheses guiding the study. The findings of the study have important implications for both theory and policy in Africa.

We are currently finalizing the working paper on the topic for presentation to policymakers and the academic community through conferences and seminars.

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